Weekly Chart of Gold price

From the picture you can see that gold price finished wave 4 and moving to test at resistance (about 990 ). In my idea it can pass this point and make new high because MACD is very strong + RSI and Moving aveerage have trend. Target at about 1,300. Gold price will vary with US dollar and oil but now all the world is recession, of course when dollar is fall, gold price is rise.

The picture is show HSKI index which is in rebound of wave 4 but can't pass at 38.2% level. Possible HSKI will move to new low. It's still channel of down trend. Stoch and DMI isn't mstrong for change to up trend. Double top at 38.2%.



Right picture is show NIX index which is in down trend same as HSKI but it may be can rebound to 50% level because head and sholder form price. NIX rebound is wave 4. Macd is storng trend but DMI still down trend.





This is DJIA index which possible finished rebound of wave 4. DMI tell that still down trend but not strong. if DJIA can't stand at old low index it'll move to wave 5 (now low) which effect from financial crisis in USA. Short time DJIA may be rebound but expect can't make new high and move to new low in long term.

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The stock all maket can get effect from hamberger crisis. From weekly and daily period DJIA is still in bearish which wave 3 isn't finish.


From weekly and daily period of HSKI is in bearish same as Djia. Posible Weekly is in sub wave c of wave 4 but wave 5 has a little probability which expect it can't pass top of wave 3. About daily is rebound after that it'll move down again.

this is NIX index which not good in right now. index can move down to low than now after finishrebound to wave 4.

Corrective Patterns
Corrections are very hard to master. Most Elliott traders make money during an impulse pattern and then lose it during the corrective phase. An impulse pattern consists of five waves. A corrective pattern (with the exception of the triangle pattern) consists of 3 waves. An Impulse pattern is always followed by a Corrective pattern. Corrective patterns can be grouped into two categories:

Simple Corrections
Complex Corrections

Simple Corrections
There is only one pattern in a simple correction. This pattern is called a Zig-Zag correction. A Zig-Zag correction is a three-wave pattern in which the Wave B does not retrace more than 75 percent


Wave B = Usually 50% of Wave A Should not exceed 75% of Wave A.
Wave C = 1 x Wave A or 1.62 x Wave A or 2.62 x Wave A.

of Wave A. Wave C will make new lows below the end of Wave A. The Wave A of a Zig-Zag correction always has a five-wave pattern.In two of the three types of complex corrections (Flat and Irregular), the Wave A has a three-wave pattern. Thus, if you can identify a five-wave pattern inside Wave A of any correction, you can then expect the correction to be a Zig-Zag.

Complex Corrrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle)
The complex correction group consists of 3 patterns:
Flat
Irregular
Triangle
Flat CorrectionIn a flat correction, the length of each wave is identical. After a five-wave impulse pattern, the market drops in Wave A. It then rallies in a Wave B to the previous high. Finally, the market drops one last time in Wave C to the previous Wave A low. formation.



Irregular Corrections
In this type of correction, Wave B makes a new high. The final Wave C may drop to the beginning of Wave A or below it.

Fibonacci Ratios in an Irregular Wave
Wave B = either 1.15 xWave A or 1.25 x Wave A.
Wave C = either 1.62 xWave A or 2.62 x Wave A.

Triangle Corrections

In addition to the three-wave correction patterns, there is another complex corrective pattern that appears time and time again. It is called the triangle pattern.The Elliott Wave Triangle approach is quite different from other triangle studies. The five sub-waves of a triangle are designated A, B, C, D and E in sequence.









Triangles are, by far, most common as fourth waves. One can sometimes see a triangle as the Wave B of a three-wave correction. Triangles are very tricky and confusing. One must study the pattern very carefully prior to taking action. Prices tend to shoot out of the triangle formation in a swift thrust.

When triangles occur in the fourth wave, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as Wave 3. When triangles occur in Wave Bs, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as the Wave A.
The Alteration Rule
If Wave 2 is a simple correction, expectWave 4 to be a complex correction.If Wave 2 is a complex correction,expect Wave 4 to be a simple correction.

Elliott Wave Theory is a collection of complex techniques. Approximately 60 percent of these techniques are clear and easy to use. The other 40 percent are difficult to identify, especially for the beginner. The practical and conservative approach is to use the 60 percent that are clear. When the analysis is not clear, why not find another market that is conforming to an Elliott Wave pattern that is easier to identify?From years of fighting this battle sing Elliott Wave principles in trading. The whole theory of Elliott Wave can be classified into two parts:

Impulse Patterns
The impulse pattern consists of five waves. The five waves can be in either direction, up or down. Some examples are shown here. The first wave is usually a weak rally with only a small percentage of the traders participating.Once Wave 1 is over, traders sell the market on Wave 2. The sell-off in Wave 2 is very vicious. Wave 2 will finally end without making new lows, and the market will start to turn around for another rally.

The initial stages of the Wave 3 rally are slow, and it finally makes it to the top of the previous rally (the top of Wave 1). At this time, there are a lot of stops above the top of Wave 1.

Traders are not convinced of the upward trend and are using this rally to add more shorts. For their analysis to be correct, the market should not take the top of the previous rally.

Therefore, many stops are placed above the top of Wave 1.

The Wave 3 rally picks up steam and takes the top of Wave 1. As soon as the Wave 1 high is exceeded, the stops are taken out. Depending on the number of stops, gaps are left open. Gaps are a good indication of a Wave 3 in progress. After taking the stops out, the Wave 3rally has caught the attention of traders.
The next sequence of events is as follows: Traders who were initially long from the bottom finally have something to cheer about. They might even decide to add positions


The traders who were stopped out (after being upset for a while) decide the trend is up, and they decide to buy into the rally. All this sudden interest fuels the Wave 3 rally. This is the time when the majority of the traders have decided that the trend is up.Finally, all the buying frenzy dies down. Wave 3 comes to a halt.Profit-taking now begins to set in. Traders who were long from the lows decide to pull out. They have a good trade and start to protect profits. This causes a pullback in the prices that is called Wave 4.



Where Wave 2 was a vicious sell-off, Wave 4 is an orderly profit-taking decline. While profit-taking is in progress, the majority of traders are still convinced the trend is up. They were either late in getting in on this rally, or they have been on the sidelines.They consider this profit-taking decline an excellent place to buy in and get even.On the end of Wave 4, more buying sets in and the prices start to rally again.The Wave 5 rally lacks the huge enthusiasm and strength found in the Wave 3 rally. The Wave 5 advance is caused by a small group of traders. While the prices make a new high above the top of Wave 3, the rate of power, or strength, inside the Wave 5 advance is very small when compared to the Wave 3 advance. Finally, when this lackluster buying interest dies out, the market tops out and enters a new phase.

Wave 5 of thai set is comming. espect can finish at 650 or next support at 580 if 650 can't stop. But now set is effected from politics in country. However you can build you port (Stock or Derivertive) for next up trend ( assum politics can clear ). Now still is in down trend.

Now DJIA is in rebound time of sub wave 4 of C which can move down to 9900.

This is Thai Set index. Now it is wave 3 or already finished wave C.








2 choice can possible of thai set index.
- not finish wave C which is in wave 4 right now.
- Already finished wave C and start new rise.

=>DJIA Wave C nearly finish in all market

DJIA finished wave 3 and rebound to wave 4. Target about 11750 - 11800.

If DJIA can't through resistance level at 38.2% effect to index can move down to 9900.
Which side way is sign of wave 4.

=>HSKI start final wave.
HSKI nearly start move to wave 5 but now isn't finish sub wave c.
See the picture. level of resistance and support level are 23500, 19000

(click at the picture for big size.)

DJIA index rebound to 38.2% but can't pass this level. This ponit is 2 of wave C.

if DJIA index can't pass at 38.2% maybe move down to low than 1,000 point.

HSKI index of Hongkong same as DJIA. After rebound from the picture it maybe move down to 18,000 or 13,000 point or worst case stop at 4,500.

SET index of Thailand can reboud to about 61.8% after that maybe move down to low than 600 or worst case is about 480.

When set index move to 620 or 450.

Can stop at 650 point of set index bearish?

When value of blue chip stock in the thai market redude more 20-30% .

Now thai set index is very low. Price of some stock lower than book value in fact. Set can rebound in the all time. Short term can rebound but long term still bearish market so that you can select trade at high divident stcok such bank or change to Gold, AFET market.

Future market will be have usefull in this time. You can short future for bearish market which help reduce loss money from bearish market or in case you don't want to sell stock because you buy at high price. Do you know stop loss?

Set thai on 18/07/2008. I think that set can rebound to 695 and 710 which will be finished wave 4 at this here.

When USA have to face with recession not inflation in the right now. DJIA move to 8,600.

Fannie Mae ( FNM ). maket value reduce 90% from 89.38 to 9.16 => Dollar is bad.

Freddie Mac (FRE). Market value reduce 92% from 89.38 to 6.00 => Dollar is bad.

The damage expand to major industrial of america distinctly. Ford Motors index reduce 88% from 38.63 to 4.66 and can't find final wave (5) of Wave [C] => Dollar is bad.

General Motors index reduce 79% from 88.12 to 9.60 and can't find final Wave [C]. => Dollar is bad.

In dex of Triad Guaranty Ice. which is big company concern home insurrnace of america reduceง 99% from 60.93 to 0.641 => Dollar is bad.

US Dollar Index start at 100 point but now it's 72.345 (value of US Dollar is reducing ).